Many people in US and outside are blaming US, NATO, Ukranians and everyone else for the current tragedy in Ukraine where thousands of young and old men and women are dying right this minute. The primary argument has been the West wanting to put NATO on Russia’s doorstep caused this to happen. I choose to disagree. Here is why…
There is no disagreement on that from anyone.
So if I am Ukraine and I have an expansionist aggressive neighbor lurking on my doorstep for the entirety of my future, I have 3 choices…
1. Go Nuclear
2. Allow Russia to eat me up in Crimea size bites and or put puppet regimes and lose independence that way.
3. Align with NATO.
Number one and two became a non option, for obvious reasons.
The thief (Russia)that was lurking around to steal my possessions broke the door and entered my house (Ukraine) before I could put the big lock (NATO) on my door.
To blame the shop that was selling the lock(US)or my aspiration to secure my house are being blamed here, instead of the thief.
This aggression would have happened no matter what, sooner or later on one pretext or another in one form or another.
Weak leadership from hindin biden( precipitous Afganistan withdrawal), Europe’s impotence due to energy dependence, US curbing energy production, US China tensions caused this to happen at this moment in this way .. thats all.
Thats why Putin did not attack Latvia when NATO discussions were going on… missiles placed there are as far reaching as missiles placed in Ukraine. Putin knows that a NATO is defensive in nature just by how it is constructed. Babus of 20 democratic countries can never agree to wage an offensive war. Ukraine was part of his expansionist agenda, so he triggered a preemptive war worth fighting for, for him.
One can blame US all they want. However, Putin would have asked for NO NATO in any of his neighbors next… at the risk of attacking Ukraine… what would you do? vacate NATO from countries like Estonia and Latvia… then he would ask for more…
A wife beater will always find reasons to beat her and blame it on how she enraged him. So will a murderer, so will a dictator that poisons his own political opponenets… do what they do and blame others.. hope we don’t take that bait.
Ukraine was part of his agenda and a big enough prize to wage a war for. The timing was right…thats all that happened.
On a different note, regardless of who is to blame, there is a fabric that we all are made of. When it faces a tear however far away, it pulls on the threads that connects us all living beings. Every religion, philosophy parses it differently but agree to the basic premise. In that spirit my heart feels a tug at the tragedy of both Ukranian and Russian mothers and fathers facing the prospect of coffins and ashes of their children returning from the battlefield. The horror of it all cannot be overstated. I hope that Russian govt. faces an appropriate consequence.
My personal sense is that Russia will face a west supported insurgency that will be so costly and so damaging in blood and treasure that Russia will be forced to do an about turn in a few years after significant loss of life, brutality and pain inflicted on both sides… like it happened in Afganistan. Occupying force of a few hundred thousand can blast through building and defenses but cannot thwart the aspirations of 40 million Ukranians that know the taste of freedom.
Not for long anyway!!
